袜贩 发表于 2013-12-18 03:31 
你这30%哪里来的？ 如果真是如此，为什么还要花成百上千亿去部署？ 日本台湾为什么还要花几十亿去购买爱 ...
古狗到的实战命中率。
米军先说：80%-50%，更正为70%-40%
小布什说：97%
MIT与以色列的终身脑残们说：<10%
你信谁的？
大头们信08, 认为布什们是傻冒，由此推断，布什泄露了军事机密。
Trial by fire[edit]
[url=http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File atriot_radar_anmpq53_.jpg] [/url]
The AN/MPQ-53 radar system used by the Patriot for target detection, tracking and missile guidance
Prior to the Persian Gulf War, ballistic missile defense was an unproven concept in war. During Operation Desert Storm, in addition to its anti-aircraft mission, Patriot was assigned to shoot down incoming Iraqi Scud or Al Hussein short range ballistic missiles launched at Israeland Saudi Arabia. The first combat use of Patriot occurred 18 January 1991 when it engaged what was later found to be a computer glitch.[20]There were actually no Scuds fired at Saudi Arabia on 18 January.[21] This incident was widely misreported as the first successful interception of an enemy ballistic missile in history. Throughout the war, Patriot missiles attempted engagement of over 40 hostile ballistic missiles. The success of these engagements, and in particular how many of them were real targets, is still controversial. Postwar video analysis of presumed interceptions by Prof. Postol suggests that no Scud was actually hit;[22][23] this analysis is contested by Dr. Zimmerman. Photographs of the fuselage of downed SCUD missiles in Saudi Arabia demonstrate that the SCUD missiles were fired into Saudi Arabia and were riddled with fragments from the lethality enhancer of Patriot Missiles.[24] Failure at Dhahran[edit]A government investigation revealed that the failed intercept at Dhahran had been caused by a software error in the system's clock.[25][26] The Patriot missile battery at Dhahran had been in operation for 100 hours, by which time the system's internal clock had drifted by one third of a second. Due to the closure speed of the interceptor and the target, this resulted in a miss distance of 600 meters. The radar system had successfully detected the Scud and predicted where to look for it next, but because of the time error, looked in the wrong part of the sky and found no missile. With no missile, the initial detection was assumed to be a spurious track and the missile was removed from the system. No interception was attempted, and the missile impacted on a makeshift barracks in an Al Khobar warehouse, killing 28 soldiers. At the time, the Israelis had already identified the problem and informed the US Army and the PATRIOT Project Office (the software manufacturer) on 11 February 1991, but no upgrade was present at the time.[25] As a stopgap measure, the Israelis recommended rebooting the system's computers regularly. However, Army officials did not understand how often they needed to do so. The manufacturer supplied updated software to the Army on 26 February, the day after the Scud struck the Army barracks. Preceding failures in the MIM-104 system were failures at Joint Defense Facility Nurrungar in Australia, which was charged with processing signals from satellite-based early launch detection systems.[27] Success rate vs. accuracy[edit]The U.S. Army claimed an initial success rate of 80% in Saudi Arabia and 50% in Israel. Those claims were eventually scaled back to 70% and 40%. However, when President George H. W. Bush traveled to Raytheon's Patriot manufacturing plant in Andover, Massachusetts during the Gulf War, he declared, the " atriot is 41 for 42: 42 Scuds engaged, 41 intercepted!".[28] The President's claimed success rate was thus over 97% during the war. According to Zimmerman, it is important to note the difference in terms when analyzing the performance of the system during the war: - Success Rate – the percentage of Scuds destroyed or deflected to unpopulated areas
- Accuracy – the percentage of hits out of all the Patriots fired
In accordance with the standard firing doctrine on average four Patriots were launched at each incoming Scud – in Saudi Arabia an average of three Patriots were fired. If every Scud were deflected or destroyed the success rate would be 100% but the Accuracy would only be 25% and 33% respectively.
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IP卡
狗仔卡
发表于 2013-12-17 23:04:02
提升卡
置顶卡
沉默卡
喧嚣卡
变色卡
显身卡
发表于 2013-12-17 23:33:11
发表于 2013-12-18 04:54:53
